Wednesday, May 25, 2005

 

Cole thinks IISS over-optimistic

As I wrote earlier today, the IISS released a report that predicted that it would take at least 5 years for any semblance of order and stability to emerge in Iraq (while in the meantime it was serving the interests of al-Qa`ida and other terrorist groups). Over at Informed Comment, however, Juan Cole isn't nearly as optimistic:
George W. Bush is a stubborn man and Iraq is his project, and he is not going to give up on it. And, by now the rest of the world knows what would await its troops in Iraq, and political leaders are not so stupid as to send their troops into a meat grinder.

Therefore, I conclude that the United States is stuck in Iraq for the medium term, and perhaps for the long term. The guerrilla war is likely to go on a decade to 15 years. Given the basic facts, of capable, trained and numerous guerrillas, public support for them from Sunnis, access to funding and munitions, increasing civil turmoil, and a relatively small and culturally poorly equipped US military force opposing them, led by a poorly informed and strategically clueless commander-in-chief who has made himself internationally unpopular, there is no near-term solution.
Yes, Prof. Cole, sometimes you are just screwed. A truly depressing thought.

Comments:
As the mother of a six-year-old boy it is very depressing.
 
If I was the U.S. parent of a young child, I would consider a condo in Canada as a good investment. The Toronto Globe and Mail has on-line classified listings. I'm serious.
 
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